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Denise Robillard
Denise Robillard
JEWETT CITY, CT 06351
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Mortgage News Daily


MBS RECAP: MBS Outperform as Treasuries Continue Correcting

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today's most prominent trade was the reaction to the 9:45am Markit PMI data. Several of the metrics were at their weakest levels since 2009. The composite PMI was the lowest since record keeping began. That means that the services sector is starting to sing a similar tune to the already damaged manufacturing sector--at least if we're to take Markit's word for it. Of course, it would require additional confirmation to become intensely troubling. It's notable then, that bonds only rallied a few bps into positive territory before turning around and heading back to slightly weaker levels on the day. While this is consistent with the "correction" narrative that we've been discussing this week, it wouldn't have been crazy to expect a bit more strength in bonds. The...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at Week's Highest levels

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates managed to hold relatively steady today after moving higher at their fastest pace in over a week yesterday. Incidentally, they also hit their highest levels in more than a week as well. In the bigger picture, the changes have been relatively small. The underlying bond market is catching its breath after an impressive surge toward lower rates throughout August. Some market participants think the next noticeable wave of momentum will begin tomorrow after Fed Chair Powell speaks at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. Like many potentially important communications from the Fed, this one has plenty of POTENTIAL to cause a stir, but is by no means guaranteed to do so. If it does, the risks are tilted toward rising rates as opposed to a quick return to recent lows. Importantly though...(read more)

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Treasury Report Sparks Rumors of Fannie/Freddie Liberation

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Sources are telling Bloomberg that a report on the White House's plan to release Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs) from their 11-year long conservatorship has landed on the desks of several agencies and is also in the hands of Lawrence Kudlow, head of the National Economic Council. Bloomberg staff say this is a sign the report is getting closer to being released publicly. The two mortgage giants were placed in conservatorship with the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) in August 2008 after they incurred large losses through mortgage defaults during the housing crisis. Over the next four years they each drew substantial operating funds from the Treasury, but both returned to profitability in 2013 and have earned billions of dollars since. All of their profits except for a relatively small...(read more)

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POS, Broker, Marketing Products; Trends in Customer Service

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Thank you to everyone who wrote yesterday correcting me that Hawai’i’s 1959 statehood is 60 years old and not 50. I know it’s not the case, but sometimes it seems like admitting Hawai’i was the last thing Congress agreed on. In these days of gridlock, most members of Congress exhibit a sort of learned helplessness, waiting for someone else to come up with an idea so that they can come out against it. Maybe those in Congress should view their constituents as their customers. In lending, when are we going to reach the point where lenders will bid on giving a customer a mortgage after viewing all the credit and property information on some kind of secure portal? Like, “Here I am, and the property I want to buy. Lenders, give me a rate and price!” Dealing with...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Set to Spar With Key Yield Ceiling

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just passed, bonds digested and reacted to the minutes from the latest Fed meeting (from late July). Given that the Fed cut rates at that meeting and that many speakers have made themselves clear, there wasn't much left to be gleaned from the minutes. Still, there were takeaways for both bond buyers and sellers. Buyers were a bit more keen right out of the gate, but sellers controlled the afternoon as the most notable feature of the minutes was an absence of firm commitment to additional rate cuts. In the day ahead, bonds will get a chance to test their mettle against an important overhead ceiling at 1.62% in 10yr Treasuries. Granted, MBS (which we care about most) haven't been following Treasuries in lock-step, but the latter has been and will continue to be the most relevant...(read more)

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Loan Closing Rates Hit Record High

Posted To: MND NewsWire

There was a dramatic drop in the average note rate for loans originated in July and the refi share of those originations rose significantly. The July Origination Insight Report from Ellie Mae shows a seventh consecutive monthly drop in the 30-year note rate on closed loans from 4.40 percent in June to 4.18 percent in July. Refinancing responded, the share of those loans jumped to 38 percent of all loans from 31 percent the previous month, driving the purchase share to 62 percent from 69 percent. The higher refinance share applied to all product types . The FHA share rose 6 percentage points to 24 percent, refinances accounted for a 42 percent share of conventional loans, up from 32 percent, and refinancing made up 31 percent of VA loans, a 7-point increase. Closing rates continued to rise to...(read more)

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July Delinquency Rate Lowest in Almost 20 Years

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Black Knight said on Thursday that the national delinquency rate fell back by 7.27 percent in July , erasing last month's increase that was caused in party by the calendar. The new rate, 3.46 percent of all active mortgages, is the lowest of any July in the company's records that date back to 2000. That information was included in Black Knight's "first look" at July's loan performance metrics most of which show continuing improvement in mortgage loan delinquencies. The number of mortgages that were 30 or more days past due during the month, excluding those in foreclosure, was 1.8 million, a decrease of 143,000 since June. The end of that month fell on a Sunday which Black Knight says typically causes a spike in delinquencies as late arriving payments don't get posted. The number of delinquencies...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Jerky Knees After Fed

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today brought the (not very) much-anticipated FOMC Minutes--a more detailed account of the conversation that transpired at the end of July when the Fed announced its rate cut. As expected, some at the Fed wanted to cut more. Some wanted to cut less. The consensus was that it was a mid-cycle rate adjustment that left room for the Fed to hike again or cut again depending upon how conditions evolve. This was perhaps somewhat less upbeat than some market participants may have hoped, but not so much so that we should credit the Fed as a market mover today. I'm more inclined to give the Fed some credit for nudging rate expectations microscopically higher and give the consolidation range credit for turning away the post-Fed rally in 10yr yields. To be clear, this is exactly in line with my pre...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Pop Higher

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved higher today, and it had nothing to do with any of the day's events or news headlines. Quite simply put, the bond market (which dictates the rates that can offered by lenders) had already begun to weaken as of yesterday afternoon. Weakness continued overnight as global financial markets dialed back their demand for safe havens. In market terms, a safe haven is generally a lower rate of return with a higher guarantee of the return remaining stable. Fixed rate government bonds from financially solvent countries are a classic safe haven. And no matter what you've heard in the news, the US mortgage market is also squarely in the safe haven camp. The only major risk associated with mortgages as far as investors are concerned is how long the mortgage will last. That uncertainty...(read more)

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Low Rates "Nudged" Existing Home Buyers NAR says

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Existing home sales returned to an upward track in July after dipping 1.7 percent in June. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said pre-owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative apartments sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million units during the month, a 2.5 percent increase from the 5.270-million-unit rate in June. The July sales were 0.6 percent higher than the 5.39 million pace set in July 2018, the first time this year that 2019 sales exceeded those a year earlier. Sales were toward the high end of the range of estimates from analysts polled by Econoday , 5.25 million to 5.50 million and beat the consensus estimate of 5.39 million units. Single-family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.84 million, a 2.8 percent increase...(read more)

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