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Mortgage News Daily


MBS RECAP: Limited Reaction to Powell Testimony; Stocks

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Fed Chair Powell fielded questions from the Senate Banking Committee today as a part of the 2-day semi-annual congressional testimony often referred to as the Humphrey Hawkins address. These testimonies have plenty of street cred based on past examples where they've caused big market movements. The difference between then and now is that markets don't have much to learn from the Fed. In other words, there's not much room for off-the-radar surprises. Today's market reaction bore that out. A few bond bulls were positioned for Powell to say something dovish. When he didn't, there was a quick, shallow, negative reaction, followed by a sideways grind that kept longer-term bond near unchanged levels. Shorter-term bonds continued to lose ground, because that's what shorter...(read more)

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Same Old Story For Mortgage Rates

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, prolonging an exceptionally flat trend. Over the past 3 weeks, the average mortgage seeker will not have seen a change in the interest rate attached to their loan. Changes have come instead from the upfront costs associated with any given rate, which can move in smaller increments than rates themselves (mortgage lenders tend to break up rates by eighths of a percentage point). The lack of movement isn't for a lack of potential movement in underlying bond markets. That said, "potential" is the operative word, and it went unfulfilled by today's data and events. Given that today's biggest calendar event was Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony, there's little reason to assume tomorrow's installment (with the House instead of the Senate) will...(read more)

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Builder Confidence: Strong but Unchanged, Material Costs Rising

Posted To: MND NewsWire

As analysts had expected, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) remained at 68 this month. The reading still indicates a strong level of builder confidence in the new home market, but the HMI has been relatively static for months, moving within a two-point range, 68 to 70, since March. NAHB surveys its new home building members monthly on their attitude toward the market. They are asked to grade their perceptions of the current market and the market they expect over the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates...(read more)

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Builders Heeding Advice to Go West. Or South

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has plucked more information from the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC), this time to paint a portrait of the state of residential permitting nationwide. Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington writes in NAHB's Eye on Housing blog that permits for single-family construction issued during the first five months of the year were up by 8 percent over the same period in 2017. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says the nationwide total for the period is 363,327 compared to 336,410 for the year-to-date (YTD) through May 2017. The activity however, was skewed toward the West and the South. Permits were issued at a similar seasonally adjusted annual rate in May of 363,700, an 8.6 percent year-over-year increase. The Bureau will issue...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: 2018 Rate Hike Odds Provide Backdrop For Powell Testimony

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Fed Chair Powell begins 2 days of semi annual congressional testimony today with the Senate Banking Committee at 10am. In recent years, this testimony has devolved into laughable political theater, mostly. That said, today's has a few redeeming qualities. First off, the Senate session tends to be slightly less theatrical than the House version coming up tomorrow. Beyond that, we know from Powell's previous congressional appearances that he tends to navigate the political posturing with more grace than Yellen--something that tends to help move the legislative blowhards through their grandstanding more quickly. Finally, despite all the theater, the fact remains that this is a venue for the Fed Chair to answer unscripted questions. Therefore, there will always be big market movement potential...(read more)

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Sales and Broker Products; Freddie and Fannie Updates

Posted To: Pipeline Press

“What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.” While you ruminate on that one, there continues to be evidence and reminders that potential home buyers are having trouble coming up with “skin in the game,” aka, a down payment. It would take an average of 36 years for someone earning the median income in D.C. to save for a 20% down payment on a median-priced house, according to a recent report from U.S. Mortgage Insurers. Still, try being a teacher in San Francisco earning $70k/year saving up for a median-priced $1.6 million home. Capital Markets Rates? Every day, a little up, a little down , although many days borrowers wouldn’t notice the difference on rate sheets. Yesterday they went up a little bit as bond prices dropped (there’s...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Slightly More Active Than a Typical Summertime Monday

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Summertime Mondays are notorious for light volume and seemingly random trading. Today was a slightly more active than normal in that regard, largely due to the presence of top tier data (Retail Sales) and a geopolitical event in the form of the Trump/Putin summit. The latter was never expected to offer any major revelations, but the former is always capable of delivering some bond market momentum. Bonds were just slightly weaker heading into the Retail Sales numbers. The weakness continued after the report came out stronger than expected. But wait! It was 0.5 vs 0.5, so how was it stronger than expected? The key difference was in the revision to last month's report (previously 0.8 but now 1.3%). The "core" sales reading was also revised higher. Additionally, several GDP estimates...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Edge Higher

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels since late May as of last Friday. Today, then, would be the 2nd best day since late May. Rates edged slightly higher to begin the new week as bond markets (which underlie rates) came under modest pressure for several relatively inconsequential reasons. The net effect was a small adjustment in the upfront costs associated with prevailing rates. In other words, the actual interest rate governing your monthly mortgage payment hasn't changed in weeks, but the upfront costs tied to that rate are slightly higher for lenders today compared to last Friday. Loan Originator Perspective My clients and i continue to favor locking in once within 30 days of closing. Only loans i would consider floating would be those that can lock on a shorter time tomorrow or if...(read more)

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MBS Week Ahead: Another Week, Another Chance to Run Same Old Play

Posted To: MBS Commentary

This is the off-season for bonds, but they still have to show up for the game every day. The coaching staff (aka the traders turning the cogs of the underlying bond market) have been running the same play every day since June 27th . It's a play that's been working on both offense and defense, thus providing an easy button for the entire team (even if it's also a "boring button"). No one gets hurt, and no one has a ridiculously good time--typical off season. So what's the play in question? Simply put, bond market players have been tasked each day with playing harder and harder defense whenever yields rise toward 2.88. On offense, they only push hard enough to get yields to 2.825, as seen on the following chart with numerous bounces on the lower teal line. I included...(read more)

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Broker Products; Blockchain Transaction; Input on DACA Loans

Posted To: Pipeline Press

When Costco rolled out its mortgage option to members, many lenders were very concerned. But despite great potential, Costco/First Choice has not become the #1 lender in America. I heard something interesting last week: Costco doesn’t make much money selling products, it makes all profits from membership fees . Despite Bank of America’s great quarterly results this morning, lots of lenders aren’t making much money selling their products either, unfortunately, and the number of residential lenders who haven’t adjusted their headcount, compensation plans, or business models in reaction is dwindling . (The latest example is job cuts at State Farm .) If a branch or channel hasn’t been profitable for a while, ask what’s going to happen, if anything, to reverse...(read more)

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Denise Robillard
141 BROWN AVE.
JEWETT CITY, CT 06351
Phone: 860 376-2555 Cell 860-334-2304
Email: deniser.cra@gmail.com

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