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Mortgage News Daily


MBS RECAP: Here's Why Bonds Loved The Fed Today (And It's NOT The DOTS)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

You may see news stories about the Fed shifting its rate hike outlook (conveyed in a dot plot often referred to as "the dots") to "zero hikes in 2019," but that's not today's big news. Today's big story is exactly the one we were looking for: a concrete announcement on the Fed's bond-buying plans. Specifically, the Fed's previous policy of allowing its balance sheet to shrink by a predetermined amount every month is officially on borrowed time . Starting in May 2019, the Fed will lower the maximum runoff amount from $30bln to $15bln per month. Simply put that's an immediate $15bln month injection of new bond buying demand. If I had to guess (and I don't anymore), I'd say that is both sooner and a bigger move than the market was expecting....(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Surge to New Long-Term Lows After Fed

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates broke a week-long streak of silence today following a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. Even before today's Fed announcement, we knew we'd likely be seeing a move in rates. We just didn't know in which direction, or at what pace. As it happens, we were treated to the best case scenario on both accounts (i.e. rates moved lower at a fast pace). As we discussed yesterday, it was the Fed's balance sheet that got most of the attention from financial markets. This refers to the Fed's loan portfolio consisting of Treasuries and mortgage-backed-bonds (both forms of loans that entitle the Fed to collect interest and principal payments). As those payments came in, the Fed had previously been putting the money back into new loans (buying new bonds to replace the old ones). They...(read more)

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The Fed Officially Announces Big Bond-Buying Change

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Market participants sensed that the Fed was suddenly changing its tune with respect to its balance sheet back in January. The balance sheet primarily refers to all the bonds the Fed purchased as a part of the various Quantitative Easing plans conducted throughout the recovery to the Great Recession. At the time, those QE plans technically involved "printing money." But it wasn't just money dropped from helicopters. The money was used to buy investments--in this case Treasury and Mortgage-Backed-Securities debt. Those bonds earn the Fed some income and they also get the principal returned when the bonds mature. The Fed HAD been using that incoming principal to buy more of the same bonds until 2018, when they began letting the balance sheet "runoff" by a controlled amount...(read more)

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What Changed in The New Fed Statement?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Below are the differences in the first paragraph of the current Fed statement as compared to the previous version from January 30th, 2019. There were no changes beyond the 1st paragraph. The full statement can be found HERE . Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in DecemberJanuary indicates that the labor market hasremains continuedstrong tobut strengthenthat andgrowth thatof economic activity has beenslowed risingfrom atits a solid rate in the fourth quarter. JobPayroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been strongsolid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. HouseholdRecent spendingindicators haspoint continued to growslower strongly, while growth of household spending and business fixed investment...(read more)

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Fannie Mae Predicts Slower Growth, Fewer Rate Hikes

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Forecasts of slowing economic growth have been the norm for some time, but it is easy to sense greater confidence lately among those making them. Fannie Mae's March Economic Developments report is predicting growth will slow from 3.1 percent in 2018 to 2.2 percent over the course of this year. The company's economists see the boost from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act fading, business investment and consumer spending slowing, and a number of other factors, including several global ones and others related to trade. They also see the risks to their forecast being primarily on the downside, although some of those risks have lessened over the last month. There have been some negative milestones in recent months. Personal consumption expenditures slowed from 3.5 percent in the third quarter to 2.8 percent...(read more)

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Sales, Investor, Construction Products; Servicing Study; Citi's Penalty

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Why do us capital markets folks seem to speak a different language? To better understand what secondary marketing folks deal with every day, here’s a piece titled, “Best Execution in Mortgage Secondary Markets” for anyone wanting to know what’s involved after a loan funds. (The information hasn’t changed much, if at all.) Yes, numbers are critical in the mortgage process, as is fair lending. For anyone paying attention to new contributors in lending, they should read this about ZestFinance , a company using Artificial Intelligence (AI) in an attempt to remove discrimination through its ZAML Fair software . Lender Products and Services Are you ready to increase your mortgage production? Give Cindy 90 days to show you how! Sign up for your FREE 20-minute coaching...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Fed Announcement: March Madness Edition

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today's only key event will be the Fed Announcement , which is actually 3 events in 1. At 2pm, we'll get the policy announcement itself as well as the Fed's updated economic projections (aka, the "dots"). Then at 2pm, Jerome Powell begins the post-announcement press conference. If the statement itself is light on details surrounding the Fed's balance sheet runoff plans, look for more details in the press conference. To reiterate the crux of our Fed-related discussions in recent weeks, today's big variable is the status of the balance sheet runoff . Ending the runoff is functionally equivalent to the Fed beginning a new bond buying program. After saying the runoff was on auto pilot with no reason to change in December, Powell and the Fed quickly came to the point...(read more)

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Builders Less Concerned about Material Costs

Posted To: MND NewsWire

One problem solved? Perhaps, but there are always others waiting in line. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) asks its new home builder members annually, as part of its January NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey, to name what they expect to be their top business problems in the coming year. In 2018 the cost of materials led the list, followed by issues regarding labor. Eighty-seven percent of respondents in the 2018 survey cited materials while 82 percent named the cost and availability of labor. This year the former problem sank to a potential issue for 69 percent, and 82 percent still cited labor shortages, returning it to its pre-2018 position as the most widespread challenge facing builders. That still leaves materials in second place and the importance of other problems...(read more)

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Mortgage Apps: Refinancing Revives as Rates Retreat

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage rates continued to slide during the week ended March 15 and the volume of mortgage application activity picked up in response. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week and was up 2 percent on an unadjusted basis. It was refinancing that drove the numbers for the week with that index rising 4 percent. The share of refinancing also grew slightly from to 38.6 percent of the total during the week ended March 8 to 39.2 percent. Purchase applications rose a modest 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis while the unadjusted Purchase Index was up by 1.0 percent both from the prior week and from the same week in 2018. Refi Index vs 30yr Fixed...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Officially Held January's Range Ahead of March Fed Announcement

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds began the day in weaker territory following overnight headlines suggesting European leaders would be going up to bat for a compromise Brexit deal. "Less bad" economic data in Germany also contributed to European bond market selling. At the start of the domestic session--particularly the 8:20am CME Open--there was a glut of sell trades in the bond market. This resulted in what was, at the time, the biggest volume spike of the day (by far) and a noticeable uptick in yields. Technical levels were first to provide support with 10yr yields bouncing at 2.63%. After that, US/China trade headlines helped take yields to their lowest levels of the domestic session just before 1pm, though the rally proved to be short-lived. Bonds ended the day slightly weaker but close enough to 'unchanged'...(read more)

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Denise Robillard
141 BROWN AVE.
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Phone: 860 376-2555 Cell 860-334-2304
Email: deniser.cra@gmail.com

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